EPL Matchday 38 Odds and Value Picks: Final Day Drama

The final day of a Premier League season is always special, but the 2025-26 edition promises to be extraordinary. Relegation, European qualification, and the Golden Boot are all undecided heading into Sunday's simultaneous 3pm kickoffs. Here are our best value picks across all 10 fixtures.

Relegation deciders

Three teams are battling to avoid the final two relegation spots, with Ipswich already down. Tottenham sit 18th on 33 points and host Sheffield United, Wolves are 19th on 32 points at home to Brighton, and West Ham are 17th on 34 points away at Aston Villa. The value play here is Wolves to win at 2.40 — they have been in strong home form since their late-season resurgence, and Brighton's top-four place is already secured, reducing their motivation. A Wolves win and Tottenham loss would see Spurs go down in one of the most shocking relegations in Premier League history.

Top four battle

The fourth Champions League spot is contested between Chelsea on 65 points and Aston Villa on 64. Chelsea host already-relegated Ipswich, while Villa welcome West Ham. Chelsea should win comfortably, but the value bet is both teams to score in Villa vs West Ham at 1.75. West Ham are fighting for survival and will throw everything forward, while Villa need three points to have any hope of overtaking Chelsea. An open, high-scoring match is likely.

Golden Boot finale

Haaland needs goals against Southampton to secure the Golden Boot, and City at home to the league's worst defence is as good a fixture as he could hope for. Haaland to score 2 or more goals is available at 2.20, which represents excellent value given Southampton have conceded an average of 2.3 goals per away match. Salah to score anytime against Wolves at 1.90 is also worth backing in what could be his final Premier League appearance.

Best accumulator

Our four-fold accumulator for the final day: Arsenal to win, Chelsea to win, Wolves to win, and over 2.5 goals in City vs Southampton. Combined odds of approximately 6.50. This covers the most likely outcomes while including the slight upset potential of Wolves at home, which boosts the overall price significantly.

Live betting angles

The final day is tailor-made for live betting. Information cascades across the 10 simultaneous matches — if Tottenham go behind early, Wolves' odds to survive will shorten dramatically, creating opportunities to back or lay accordingly. Our advice: follow the relegation matches live and wait for a goal in any of the three relevant fixtures before placing your in-play wager. The market tends to overreact to early goals on the final day, and there is often value in betting against the initial market move.

Stake responsibly

As always, never bet more than you can afford to lose. The final day of the season is entertainment — enjoy the drama without putting your financial wellbeing at risk. Set a budget for the day and stick to it, regardless of results.